A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
